Recently AMC has been showing past episodes of TWD on Sundays, lest we forget about the current most popular show on the planet. Truly, Networks must think we have the attention span of goldfish. Tragically, some of us do.
Like most folks, I have spent my summer
I nominate: Abraham.
I hear you scoff. (unless you are a genius like me and picked him too) So, let's break this down...
Chances are very high that it is not Rick or Carl. For a start, Rick is still too important to this show to kill him off. I think Carl is out of the running because Neegan throws over his shoulder "If anyone moves pull out the kids eye and feed it to his dad." I paraphrase because I have a poor memory at times + I don't care enough. Anyway, it doesn't seem likely for him to say this if he intended to kill either Rick or Carl.
I don't think it is Michonne or Darryl either. Both are fan faves and yes, it would be a sucker punch to lose them, but I think the blowback would not be worth it in the end. Also, neither Michonne nor Darryl look very strong or dangerous right now. They have been tied up and crated for a period of time, probably without food or water, and Darryl is obviously wounded. To Neegan, they really are not on his radar yet.
Glenn has been a popular choice from the beginning, obviously not because people want to see him go, but because he is a beloved character and it would be an emotional sucker punch for both the audience and Maggie. However, Glenn couldn't stop himself from protesting when Neegan threatened Maggie, so Neegan knows Glenn would do anything to protect her. That's leverage, and keep in mind what Neegan is trying to do with this (very long) demonstration. Not only is he establishing himself as a badass that they must serve and fear, stripping away Rick's authority, but he is sniffing out everyone's buttons. While one of them will die to both punish Rick's group and set up his rule over them, he doesn't kill them for the sake of killing, like the Wolves. He wants them to work for him, to get stuff for him, to serve him. To do that, he needs to know what motivates everyone.
I take Maggie out of the equation. True, in her condition she may be of little use to Neegan, but using her, he controls Glenn. Likewise, he can infer that threatening Glenn will keep Maggie in line. Carl and Rick have the same scenario.
The other characters, while important and likely to be missed, would not have the same emotional impact if killed. Personally, I don't want Aaron to go because he annoys me the least. Plus I get sick of gay characters dying, am I right? And while Eugene, Rosita and Sasha have had their characters built up, losing them at this time would be a waste as they have had targets on their backs for a while. (am I forgetting anyone? I feel like I am) Now, from Neegan's POV, Eugene, Rosita, and Sasha are not overly dangerous. Eugene is a blubbering, shaking mess, and women are naturally discounted as viable threats.
That leaves us with Abraham. Now, the audience knows Rick's real second in command is Michonne, and if he gives the signal, she will unleash hell as best she can. However, she was not with him, Abraham was. And yes, Abraham has accepted Rick as his leader and works as his 2IC in the group from the trailer. From Neegan's POV, Abraham IS a threat. He is a big guy, and he shows no fear of what is about to happen. Some folks say he even leans into Lucille when Neegan points her at him. Strategically, Abraham is the best choice for Neegan to take out. The 2IC supports the leader. Rip that out from under Rick and Rick is weakened. None of the other people have the same physical prowess Abraham has.
Plus, we got to see a bit more about how he is feeling towards Sasha, and you always worry when the show does that. Like the show gets you emotionally invested in a character right before they off them, just to make it hurt. Sadists. ;-)
So, there's my hat in the ring. Apologies if I forgot anyone else, but that just means your character is flying so low under the radar, you are probably safe. If Neegan is going to be a great bad guy, he has to be smart and he has to know how people tick. My guess is he will choose Abraham for that reason. This may even push Sasha off the rails again as when her brother died.
Who do you think got beat to a pulp?